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US Defense Secretary says war with China is neither imminent nor inevitable, but stresses need for talks

By DAVID RISING

01/06/2024

SINGAPORE (AP) — United States Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin told a gathering of top security officials Saturday that war with China was neither imminent nor unavoidable, despite rapidly escalating tensions in the Asia-Pacific region , stressing the importance of renewed dialogue between him and his Chinese counterpart in avoiding “miscalculations and misunderstandings.”

Austin’s comments were made at the Shangri La defense forum in Singapore the day after he had spent more than an hour with Chinese Defense minister Dong Jun. This was the first face-to-face meeting between top officials in the field of defense since 2022, when the American-Chinese military relations broke down after the then-U.S. House speaker Nancy Pelosi, who visited Taiwan and infuriated Beijing, visited.

The two sides did not change their positions, which have been in place for many years, on Taiwan, which China claims and which it has not ruled-out using force to seize, and on China’s broad claims in the South China Sea. These claims led to direct clashes with other nations, most notably, the Philippines.

Austin refused to reveal the details of the conversation but said that it was important that they were talking again.

He said: “As we talk, we can identify the issues that are problematic and we want to be sure we have guardrails in place to make certain there aren’t any misperceptions or miscalculations that could spiral out of hand.”

You can only do this if you’re talking.

In his speech at the same forum, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., Philippine president, outlined the potential stakes. He said that if one Filipino was killed while China’s coastguard and merchant fleet confronted the Philippine coast guard to assert its claims in South China Sea it would “be very, very close to an act of warfare and we will therefore respond accordingly.”

Marcos said that he believed all of the Philippines’ treaty partner countries, including the U.S. “hold the same standards.”

Austin, in his own speech, praised Marcos for “speaking so powerfully yesterday night about how Philippines is standing up to its sovereign rights under International Law.” However, when pressed, he refused to say how the U.S. would react if a Filipino was killed in a conflict with China. He called it a hypothetical.

He said that the U.S. is committed to the Philippines, as a partner in a treaty, and he emphasized the importance of dialogue.

He said: “We recognize that there are many things that can go wrong on the sea or in flight.” “But we want to ensure that things don’t spiral out of hand unnecessarily.”

Dong spoke at the conference Sunday morning. The Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived on Saturday night without notice and will participate in a discussion panel on Sunday.

Beijing has rapidly expanded its navy in recent years and is increasingly assertive when it comes to claiming virtually the entire South China Sea.

Richard Marles, Australian Deputy Premier and Defense Minister, noted that Chinese ships had rammed Philippine ships and fired water cannons at them. He also said a Chinese plane dropped flares over an Australian helicopter in early this year and in November, a Chinese navy vessel injured Australian divers with sonar in Japanese waters.

He said that, “in the face of multiple sources of tension,” it was even more important for each country to play its part in managing growing strategic risks.

The Japanese Defense Ministry released a statement saying that in his meeting with Dong the Japanese Defense Minister Minoru kihara expressed “serious concern” over China’s increased military activities around Japan in the air and sea, including joint exercises conducted with Russia.

In order to counteract Chinese activity, the U.S. is increasing military exercise with its ally in the region to highlight its “free-and-open Indo-Pacific” Concept, intended to emphasize freedom-of-navigation through the contested water, including the Taiwan Strait.

Cao Yanzhong is a Chinese researcher who works at the Institute of War Studies. He asked Austin if the U.S. wanted to create an Asian NATO, with its emphasis of partnerships and alliances. This is a claim that’s common in China. He said that this could lead to conflict with China. Citing Russia’s claim, that NATO’s expansion eastward was a danger, that President Vladimir Putin used as an excuse to invade Ukraine , he suggested that it might.

Cao stated that “the eastern expansion of NATO led to the Ukraine Crisis.” What implications do you believe the strengthening of U.S. alliances in the Asia-Pacific region will have on the security and stability of this region?

Austin stated that the U.S. was simply cooperating “with like-minded countries who share similar values”, and not trying create a NATO type alliance. He also rejected Cao’s understanding of the causes of the Ukraine War.

Austin stated that “the Ukraine crisis was clearly caused by Putin’s decision to illegally invade his neighbor.”

Dewi Fortuna, an Indonesian academic, expressed the concerns of many in the region. She said that any de-escalation would be “very welcome” to this part. However she wondered if the U.S. allowed China’s assertive militaristic posture to continue unchallenged if Washington was now focusing on dialogue.

She said, “We’re also concerned that if you get too close to each other, we might also be trampled.”

Austin stated that it was best to address many of these issues through dialogue, but that Washington would continue to protect the rights of the nations in the area and ensure they have access to exclusive economic zones.

Austin stated that “war or a conflict with China is not imminent or unavoidable in my opinion.”

He said that leaders of powerful nations should continue to work together in order to minimize the chances for miscalculations and misunderstandings. “Not every conversation will be happy, but it’s important to continue talking to each other.” It is also important to continue supporting our partners and allies in their own interests.